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Chances in the scramble after unsuccessful match

Scramble experience, suggestions, strategies

Chances in the scramble after unsuccessful match

Postby anatolyk » Tue Jan 30, 2007 9:38 am

"Will I have a better chance in the Scramble after I did not get any interviews for the Match?"

"I think that programs will have no time to notice my USMLE attempts during the Scramble and I will have a better chance"

I hear these question over and over, so I decided to share my view.
One's chances in the Scramble are about 1/4 of what they are in the match.

Let's look at the number of applicants per position ratios (you may find complete figures at ).

2006 Match numbers (rounded):
Match - 29,000 / 22,000 = 1.31 applicants/position
Scramble - 9,000 / 1,600 = 5.625 applicants/position
Scramble chances are lower than Match - 5.625/1.31= 4.3 times

These numbers do not account for additional applicants that did not participate in the match, so reality is even tougher.
Conclusion - if you applied for the Match early and did not get interviews, or got too few, you have to analyze what went wrong. This is the key. Otherwise your Scramble experience will be very frustrating.
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